Forecasts for the real estate market in Spain for 2026
The Spanish real estate market has been attracting investors from around the world for years, and the Costa del Sol consistently remains one of the most interesting and dynamic investment regions in Europe. What are the forecasts for the Spanish real estate market in 2026? What awaits Polish investors in 2026? What trends will shape the market and what should be paid attention to when planning to buy property in Spain, especially on the Costa del Sol?
What will you find in the article?
Stable growth and strong demand – what do the latest forecasts say?
We observe that despite global economic turmoil, the real estate market in Spain, especially on the Costa del Sol, demonstrates considerable resilience and stability. According to the latest industry forecasts, in 2026 property prices in Spain will continue to rise, although the growth pace will somewhat stabilize after the record years of 2024-2025. BBVA Research predicts a price increase of about 7% annually, and Singular Bank estimates that the total growth in 2025-2026 will even reach 9%. Meanwhile, CaixaBank Research forecasts a 6.3% increase in 2026, after around 10% in 2025. The number of transactions is expected to remain at a high level – between 620,000 and 720,000 yearly, driven by lower interest rates, rising incomes, and a growing number of foreign buyers.
Costa del Sol – a region ahead of the rest of the country
Costa del Sol, thanks to its climate, developed infrastructure, and high quality of life, consistently remains one of the most attractive investment regions in Spain. Forecasts for the Spanish real estate market indicate that property prices on the coast will grow faster than the national average by 3-5% annually, and in the most prestigious locations (Marbella, Estepona, Benahavís, Sotogrande) even 7-9% yearly. In Marbella, prices of secondary market properties may rise by 5-15%, while new developments, after dynamic growth in 2025, will stabilize at a high level (around €5,200/m² on average in 2025).
What drives the market? Key factors
We observe that the key growth factors are:
- strong foreign demand (in the Málaga province as many as 39% of buyers are foreigners),
- growing popularity of remote work and permanent relocations to Spain,
- limited supply of properties in the best locations,
- infrastructure development (new air connections, high-speed rail, investments in ecology and sustainable construction),
- attractive rental yields (5-10% annually).
Polish investors on the Costa del Sol
Our observations from recent years show that Poles are increasingly boldly investing on the Costa del Sol. We do not yet have data for the entire 2025, but in the third quarter of this year Poles closed over 3,000 purchase transactions. This number is only slightly lower than in 2024, indicating that the share of Poles in foreign investments in Spain is stabilizing at a level placing our compatriots in the TOP 10 foreign investors. They are attracted not only by the climate and lifestyle but also by market stability, good forecasts for the Spanish real estate market, the possibility of earning high rental income, and a wide range of modern apartments and villas. Increasingly, Polish clients use the services of local agencies that help throughout the entire purchasing process: from property selection, through formalities, to rental management.
Risks and challenges in 2026
Experts emphasize that the market shows no signs of a speculative bubble because growth is driven by real demand, not speculation. The challenges include primarily rising prices versus the availability of housing for local buyers, possible interest rate hikes in the second half of 2026, and limited supply of new developments in the most attractive locations. Additionally, investors should consider changes in tax regulations and possible new regulations concerning short-term rentals that may appear in response to growing tourist demand. Finally, fluctuations in exchange rates as well as local legal and administrative differences that may extend or complicate the purchasing process are also significant. Therefore, it is crucial to use the services of trusted advisors and lawyers who will help minimize risks and safely conduct the transaction.
From our experience in recent years, a general rule of limited trust should be adopted. Check everything you hear, but above all thoroughly verify the people you decide to work with. Unfortunately, not everyone claiming to be intermediaries in real estate transactions is trustworthy. Often they lack experience, sometimes also goodwill. On the Costa del Sol operates the LPA Leading Property Agents in Spain association, which groups verified and ethically operating real estate agencies. It’s worth checking whether the intermediary you decide to cooperate with belongs to this association.
Where to look for investment opportunities?
Our observations indicate that attention should be paid to Estepona and Manilva, so-called “emerging markets,” which show a good price-to-quality ratio. Interesting investment options also include new luxury developments in Marbella and Benahavís, as well as ecological development projects in good locations. The year 2026 looks very promising both for people looking for a home for personal use and for investors focused on rentals.
Summary
Forecasts for the Spanish real estate market in 2026 are optimistic. Stable price growth, rising demand, and increasing activity of Polish investors make buying property in Spain, especially on the Costa del Sol, an attractive and safe form of capital investment.
If you are considering buying property on the Costa del Sol, let’s talk.
